Some Covid Analyses

What follows are the statistics and visualizations regarding COVID-19 that I find informative, important, or were just interesting to me to create as I learn more about data visualization. There are plenty of other analyses available, and analyses that come from disease experts, which I am not, so I encourage you to read and look at those as well!

The analyses use data last updated on 7/17/2020.

Global Analyses

Global Total Cases

Currently the nation with the fewest per capita confirmed cases is Papua New Guinea at 1 in every 559,608 individuals.
The nation with the most per capita confirmed cases is Qatar at 1 in every 26.
The global prevalence is 1 in every 544 individuals have had a confirmed case of COVID-19.

Distribution of national confirmed COVID-19 case prevalence.

Global Daily New Cases

Global Deaths

Currently the nation with the fewest per capita deaths is Burundi at 1 in every 11,902,780 individuals.
The nation with the most per capita deaths is San Marino at 1 in every 808 individuals.
Globally 1 in every 12,908 individuals have died from COVID-19.
1 in every 24 individuals who have contracted COVID-19 have died, a death rate of 4.22%.

If the current death rate in each nation remains the same, then based on the number of currently active cases, i.e. without additional infections, the current global death toll of 604,111 would be expected to increase to 688,183.

Distribution of national COVID-19 death prevalence.

Global Daily New Deaths

Financial Times COVID-19 Tracker - Deaths*

*Financial Times COVID-19 Tracker link

Financial Times COVID-19 Tracker - Deaths in Selected Nations*

Global Active Cases

Currently their are 15 nations without any active cases of COVID-19. The most populous nation without any active cases is Laos.
The nation with the most per capita active cases is French Guiana at 1 in every 118 individuals.
The global prevalence is 1 in every 1,648 individuals with an active case of COVID-19.

Distribution of national active COVID-19 case prevalence.

Financial Times COVID-19 Tracker - New Cases Selected Nations*

United States of America Analyses

National Status

In the USA 1 in every 87 people has had a confirmed case of COVID-19, 1 in every 174 has an active case, and 1 in every 2,325 individuals have died. The USA in ranked in position 11 for per capita cases, position 2 for per capita active cases, and position 10 for per capita deaths.

USA Total Cases

Currently the state with the fewest per capita confirmed cases is Hawaii at 1 in every 1,062 individuals.
The nation with the most per capita confirmed cases is New York at 1 in every 45.

Map of Per Capita Confirmed Case Prevalence by State Prevalence of Active Cases by State

USA Deaths

Currently the state with the fewest per capita deaths is Hawaii at 1 in every 62,500 individuals.
The state with the most per capita deaths is New Jersey at 1 in every 564 individuals.

In the USA 1 in every 27 individuals who have contracted COVID-19 have died, a death rate of 3.77%. If the current death rate remains the same, then based on the number of currently active cases, i.e. without additional infections, the current national death toll of 142,379 would be expected to increase to 213,872.

Map of Per Capita Deaths by State Prevalence of Deaths by State

Death Trends by State

USA Active Cases

Currently the state with the fewest per capita active cases is Hawaii at 1 in every 4,467 individuals.
The state with the most per capita active cases is Arizona at 1 in every 60 individuals.

Map of Per Capita Active Case Prevalence by State Prevalence of Active Cases by State

Case Trends by State

Regional Analyses

New England Case Trends by State

New England Death Trends by State

Local Exposure Risk

There are also a number of resources available that are tracking how well COVID-19 is being controlled and the current status at a more local level. Two examples are CovidActNow and The Path to Zero

Path to Zero county level risk

Number of active cases per town in NH

Number of active cases per town in southeastern NH by town

Status of Cases in the North versus the South

One question I’ve become curious about is the status of cases in the North versus the South. I defined states in the north as those with major populaton centers north of D.C. and Kansas City, and those with population centers south of those cities as southern states.

NorthOrSouth	Active	Cases	Deaths	Active_Prevalence	Prevalence	Death_Prevalence	PercentActive
north	588,894	1,693,410	101,595	308	107	2,210	34.78
south	1,269,914	2,000,507	38,126	143	91	4,164	63.48

COVID Analysis

Jonathan Cummings

7/17/2020